Brexit no deal roulette wheel.

Brexit no deal roulette wheel.

By Kia Pope

Whether you support Brexit or not, you must now see that Brexit is dead.

In 2016, leave politicians told us this would be a walk in the park. David Davis famously told us it would be “the easiest deal in the world”. In a stroke of cosmic humour, he was the man put in charge of negotiating the easiest deal in the world – and he fudged it so badly he resigned. As did the guy who came after him.

The deal on offer would wreck British sovereignty. It would make us a rule taker with NO input over those rules, through the European Parliament.

Luckily, the Parliament we voted to give more power to voted it down. By the biggest margin ever recorded, in British history. Twice. And soon, it will be thrice. The EU have already wasted two years of their time, and we’ve wasted two years of ours. We aren’t renegotiating it.

That deal is the best we’re gonna get, and it’s dead. Don’t get me wrong – that’s a good thing. That deal would be the final nail in the coffin for a Britain looking for a brighter future.

So now it’s a choice between no deal, or no Brexit.

RIP Brexit 16 June 2016 - March 12 2018.

RIP Brexit. It was a shit idea anyway.

And Parliament (the one we voted needs more power) have rejected a no deal Brexit. As corrupt and incompetent as Westminster is, they know that a no deal Brexit will make everyone poorer.

A real quick economics lesson here. A no deal Brexit means ripping up half our laws and all of our trade agreements overnight. This would make it harder to trade (whatever lies the Daily Mail might tell you, the idea that scrapping all our trade deals won’t make it harder to trade is fucking absurd). This means every British firm which sells stuff abroad will sell less of their stuff. They’ll bring in less money, and they’ll cut worker’s wages or lay people off to make up for it. Then we have potentially hundreds of thousands of people losing jobs, who then spend less money, so businesses all over the country sell less, and they, in turn, have to lay people off. Rinse and repeat.

This is how a recession happens. That’s what no deal Brexit means – we would all get poorer. If anyone tells you this isn’t the case, they’re lying to you, or they don’t know what they’re on about.

MPs get this. So they’ve shelved that idea, definitively. It got voted down yesterday. We will not leave the EU without a deal.

If we can’t leave with a deal, and we can’t leave without a deal, that’s left only one option. We’ve asked to extend Brexit.

The thing is, the EU have already made it clear that they won’t do that unless it’s for “significant political change”. They said this ages ago, and the messaging is clear.

They aren’t extending Article 50 unless it’s for a second referendum or a general election.

And we can absolutely 100% be sure of one thing – the Tories aren’t about to vote for another general election. Every aspect of our society is in crisis; the NHS is collapsing, poverty is rising, schools are struggling, crime is up, life expectancy declining, we have a housing crisis, the trains are shit, people’s wages have gone down for the past 10 years, and now they’ve screwed Brexit. If you can think of an aspect of our society, chances are the Tories have done something to screw it up over the past ten years.

They know if they hold an election, they’re toast.

By the process of elimination, that leaves us with one option. There will be a lot of political posturing over the next week. A lot of politicians acting reluctant because they have to.

But they won’t vote for this awful deal, they won’t vote to make the country poorer with no deal, and they won’t vote for a general election.

So, we’re getting a second referendum. MPs will calculate that at least then, they don’t have to take responsibility for the fuck up. I can hear them now on the news – “the people voted for this deal, so it’s not on me that it’s decapitated our democracy!”

“The people voted for a no deal Brexit, it’s not my fault 200,000 British people lost their jobs last year!”

We voted to hand Parliament a lot more power, and now the self-interest of the people who sit in it is gonna steer the country straight into a second referendum.

It’s no longer if. It’s when.


Kia Pope

Kia Pope is currently studying for a Master’s degree in Plymouth, Devon, having completed a first class degree in politics and global studies at the University of Winchester.

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2 replies
  1. tern
    tern says:

    No they have another option, that is more in character and avoids electoral gambles.
    To revoke article 50 on grounds of preventing no deal, then comtinue the impasse argument for the rest of this parliament and blame each other at the next election.

    Reply

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